MetalBulletin reported that David Wilson, director of metals research and strategy at Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C), believes that, contrary to what many believe, Indonesia is indeed likely to impose restrictions on ore exports.
Wilson told MetalBulletin:
I think it entirely hinges on Indonesia. If there is no form of ban I think there will be closures but if there is a ban you’ll see a lift-off in prices. So much Chinese RKEF (rotary kiln electric furnace) production is dependent on Indonesian ore.
The market seems to be pricing in nothing, no change, as though there’s no ban and I think that’s the wrong assumption. I don’t think the government can be seen as doing nothing when it’s been so loudly trumpeted for so long.